GROWING STORM CLOUDS
(for a possible nuclear war…)

Prime Minister Yetanyahu’s recent address to Congress on Israel’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, may be correct from his perspectives, but they ignore an even greater threat in the region…one which makes Iranian nuclear potentials relatively inconsequential.

Granted, the Israelis see Iran as an existential threat, and with good reason, but that is nothing compared to the hair-trigger situation that exists between Pakistan and India, both of whom actually have nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them not only against each other, but elsewhere all over the region besides.

Thus this fixation on Iran’s capabilities and intentions seems somewhat misdirected in the grand scheme of preventing the further proliferation of such weapons of mass destruction. They already have and are…proliferating…and unfortunately for the rest of us, among highly unstable countries besides.

The main reason everyone seems so anxious about Iran is because of the Ayatollahs and their regime. No one trusts them or their intentions about Israel, but also about the rest of the Middle East as well. Of course, no one has ever trusted any Iranian regime…not that of Mossadegh…not that of the Shah…and now not that of the Ayatollahs. To what extent such mistrust of Iran could be assuaged is an open question. Whatever regime is in power there would have to make some very radical changes in its behavior before anyone might think otherwise.

Meanwhile, growing storm clouds for possible nuclear war between Pakistan and India, right next door to Iran, is a scenario no one, including the Iranians, seems to want to contemplate or consider. Should it happen, everyone, including the Iranians and the Israelis, would be impacted.

The real menace therefore is not Iran but…Pakistan…which has an even greater paranoid perspective about India than Israel has about Iran…and quite prepared to launch an insane first strike against India…regardless of the consequences to itself or anyone else. The trigger event here is their confrontations about water and energy deriving from previous agreements concerning how they must share the waters of the Indus River… vital to both countries for both those needs. That’s the crux of the issue between India and Pakistan, and frankly, the latter’s military have clearly indicated they are prepared to go that route at any moment…to secure those needs.

Compared to this threat to the peace and stability of the world, the Israeli-Palestinian, the ISSIS/ISSL, Russia-Ukraine situations seem like petty squabbles in children’s sandboxes.

Pax vobiscum.

CENTURION

.