(…as we’re tip-toeing forward through the tulips of…mutual distrust)

After more than two and half years of diplomatic musical chairs, to negotiate some sort of deal to nullify Iran’s efforts to create its own atomic weapons system, and a final round-the-clock set of negotiations to hammer out all the minute details of such a deal…one has been achieved. Or so we’ve been led to believe.

Yes, they’ve managed to get a 150 page document properly signed by all the parties to that agreement, but there are a number of obstacles to overcome before any of its provisions are ever likely to even become reality. The first hurdle, of course, is having it successfully vetted and confirmed by the UN Security Council. Other than having to put up with a lot of hot-air exchanges between some of its members, the odds are there will be little demure or objection made by that most august body of the international community (mainly because there are too many potential rice-bowl interests involved). The second hurdle, however, will be our own glorious Senate, and that could be a serious obstacle, since many of its members have openly opposed making any kind of deal with Iran from the beginning…regardless of any supposed assurances made about it.

Then of course, there is the main hurdle of having Iran’s “Supreme Leader” giving it his blessing (the only vote that currently counts in Iran). That will probably only be given if he and his Republican Guard Mafiosi can figure to what extent they will be able to prevaricate and weasel their way around or through any of the deal’s provisions they don’t like…so that will be their determining factor for approving the deal or not.

In any case, the only party to this agreement that comes out ahead appears to be Iran. One way or the other the sanctions that have been strangling its economic health will slowly fade away. Even if they manage to cheat their way around some of those nuclear restrictions, it will be nearly impossible to re-impose such sanctions on Iran…and they know it. In short, the best that can be said for such a deal is that it simply kicks the can of Iran’s nuclear ambitions down the road (for about 15 years), as we’re tip-toeing forward through the tulips of…mutual distrust. But what happens after that?

We don’t have a crystal ball to make any predictions about that, but, given its past and current patterns of behavior, the odds are Iran will not abide by any restrictions, and will maneuver any which way it can to render them meaningless. Of course, anything can happen in fifteen years. Even theocratic strong-arm regimes can, and do, get replaced. Perhaps that’s what our negotiators were banking on when making this deal.


But let’s be brutally frank here…the only reason we’ve objected to Iran’s nuclear efforts is because we just don’t trust the Ayatollahs’ regime not to be insane enough to try and use such weaponry. Frankly, we’ve never understood why it is any less trustworthy in that regard than the Pakistani ISI mob which actually…has…such weaponry, and because of its paranoid perspectives about India (which also has them), is quite ready to use them against it. Nor should we forget that North Korean establishment which has clearly demonstrated it is insane enough to do the same to its South Korean sibling, as well as to Japan. As for our Israeli friends, their existentialist fears about Iran also border on paranoia, and could just as easily trigger them into launching a pre-emptive counter stroke…on the basis of doing it to others…before these do it to them.

Thus, in such a stewpot of mutual paranoid distrust, the only conclusion that we can come to is, flawed as such a deal might be, it’s better than any alternatives that we can see, because the only ones that could be definitive…would have to be military…and that… because of all those potential nukes ready to be involved…is not something anyone should ever have to contemplate.